CME ScoreBoard Header

CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2021-04-22T05:23:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2021-04-22T05:23Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/16772/-1
CME Note: Associated with an eruption visible in STEREO A EUVI 195 and SDO AIA 171/193 beginning 2021-04-22T04:21Z, and associated with C3.8 flare beginning at 2021-04-22T04:10 and peaking at 2021-04-22T04:35Z. There is some northeastern deflection apparent in the available EUV imagery. Arrival signaled by sudden rise in Btotal from 5 to 8 nT at 2021-04-2422:24Z, followed shortly by an increase in Btotal to above 10 nT, accompanied by jumps in velocity, density, and temperature as measured by DSCOVR.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-04-24T22:24Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 5.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-04-24T17:24Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/16773/1
Model Inputs:
2021-04-22T05:23:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-8.0, Lat.=-13.0, Speed=803.0, HalfAngle=30.0, Time21.5=2021-04-22T09:37Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2021-04-24T17:24Z (+- 7 hours)
Duration of disturbance (hr) =22.4 (+- 8 hours)
Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 6.0
(kp)90=4
(kp)180=6

Other Location(s) Impact:
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2021-04-25T22:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210422_093700_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210422_093700_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210422_093700_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210422_093700_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210422_093700_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210422_093700_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210422_093700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210422_093700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210422_093700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210422_093700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210422_093700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210422_093700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210422_093700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210422_093700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210422_093700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210422_093700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 54.13 hour(s)
Difference: 5.00 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Robert Loper (M2M Office) on 2021-04-22T16:16Z

CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy